empty
12.03.2025 12:43 AM
Commodity Currencies Remain Under Growing Pressure Despite Overall Dollar Weakness. AUD/USD Analysis

The tension caused by the new U.S. administration's aggressive efforts to revise tariffs has also affected Australia. According to NAB, business conditions showed slight improvement in February, with modest increases in trading conditions and profitability. However, there was a significant decline in business confidence, which dropped by 6 points, largely negating the improvement made in January. This brought confidence below the long-term average and back into negative territory.

This image is no longer relevant

Revised data indicated a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, which slightly exceeded the expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Private consumption grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, which is an improvement over previous quarters, but still insufficient to drive overall economic growth.

For the RBA, the incoming data appears neutral. The rate forecast suggests one more rate cut in May, with a projected final level of 3.1% by 2026. This forecast aligns with market expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate in 2026, indicating no clear driver for future rate divergence. At least for now, this minimizes the likelihood of significant movements in either direction.

U.S. President Trump responded to Canada's introduction of an import tax on electricity from the U.S.—which the Canadian government imposed as a retaliatory measure—by raising tariffs. Duties on Canadian steel and aluminum have now reached 50%. Markets reacted with a decline, and this downturn is likely to spread across the entire commodities sector. Selling anything in the U.S. is becoming increasingly complex, and where else can exports go if not to the U.S.? While Australia does not face a direct threat, there is an indirect risk of declining activity in the mining sector and a potential overall drop in exports, which is a negative outlook for the Aussie.

Net short positions on the AUD increased by $134 million over the reporting week to -$3.034 billion, with positioning remaining bearish. The calculated price is above the long-term average, offering hope for a corrective upward movement.

This image is no longer relevant

The AUD/USD currency pair is currently trading in a sideways range, with the nearest resistance level at 0.6400/20. This target, which was identified last week, remains unachieved. The Australian dollar is lacking the internal momentum necessary for a resurgence, and additional pressure arises from rising concerns about a possible U.S. recession, which is heavily impacting commodity currencies. We anticipate that trading will remain range-bound, with a slightly increased likelihood of a slow movement towards the 0.5400/20 level. However, a strong rally is not expected.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

O ouro sabe o caminho para a vitória

O ouro não foi a escolha favorita do mercado após a vitória de Donald Trump nas eleições de novembro. De fato, recuou quando a onda vermelha se confirmou

Marek Petkovich 13:30 2025-03-27 UTC+2

Parece que é hora de se concentrar no euro e no iene (EUR/USD pode cair, USD/JPY pode subir)

Desde meados do mês, os mercados financeiros têm tentado se recuperar enquanto analisam freneticamente os possíveis desdobramentos da guerra comercial iniciada pelos EUA contra seus maiores parceiros comerciais. O sentimento

Pati Gani 17:02 2025-03-26 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 26 de março? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Há poucos eventos macroeconômicos programados para quarta-feira, e apenas um relatório importante é aguardado. O Reino Unido divulgará o que pode parecer um relatório relevante sobre inflação. A inflação continua

Paolo Greco 16:56 2025-03-26 UTC+2

Os mercados não correrão cegamente para o perigo

Donald Trump desferiu um golpe tão forte na globalização que as condições e perspectivas para o futuro mudaram – agora divididas por linhas territoriais. Enquanto os bancos europeus acreditam

Marek Petkovich 16:21 2025-03-26 UTC+2

Donald Trump semeia confusão novamente com comentários sobre tarifas

O presidente dos Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, causou mais confusão na terça-feira ao anunciar planos para introduzir uma série de isenções em sua ampla proposta de tarifas. O anúncio serviu

Jakub Novak 16:15 2025-03-26 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

O iene japonês continua sob pressão hoje devido a dados econômicos domésticos fracos. Em fevereiro, o principal indicador de inflação do Japão no setor de serviços aumentou 3,0% em relação

Irina Yanina 15:50 2025-03-26 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Análise e previsão

O ouro continua a mostrar um tom positivo hoje, mas a convicção por trás do movimento ascendente permanece fraca. A incerteza do mercado, impulsionada pelas tarifas anunciadas por Donald Trump

Irina Yanina 15:11 2025-03-26 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

O par USD/JPY recua do nível psicológico de 151,00, alcançado no início desta terça-feira, embora sem uma pressão de venda significativa. O iene japonês atrai compradores diante dos comentários hawkish

Irina Yanina 20:11 2025-03-25 UTC+2

Visão geral do par EUR/USD - 25 de março: o euro continua a cair em uma correção

O par de moedas EUR/USD apresentou volatilidade relativamente baixa na segunda-feira. No entanto, ao observar o gráfico abaixo, fica claro que a volatilidade não tem sido alta recentemente —

Paolo Greco 17:08 2025-03-25 UTC+2

O mercado virou tudo de cabeça para baixo

Será que o pior já passou? Com o S&P 500 alcançando uma alta de três semanas em meio às ameaças de redução de tarifas por Donald Trump, bancos e empresas

Marek Petkovich 15:15 2025-03-25 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.