empty
13.06.2024 12:28 AM
A decline in US inflation will allow the yen to initiate a bearish USD/JPY reversal

The US Consumer Price Index declined to 3.3% on a yearly basis in May from 3.4% in April, while the core index fell even more sharply from 3.6% to 3.4%. The slowdown in inflation completely offset the effect of the strong labor market. The bond market responded with a sharp decline in yields, and the likelihood of the first Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen significantly.

This image is no longer relevant

The Federal Reserve held its meeting on Wednesday. The interest rate was expected to remain unchanged, but economic forecasts and the rate trajectory were highly likely to be revised. This signals a potential weakness for the US dollar, and we expected volatility to spike following the meeting.

The Bank of Japan will hold its meeting on Friday. A 0.1% rate hike is not expected, but the Bank may announce a program to reduce bond purchases. Such a decision would be the BOJ's first clear step towards quantitative tightening after abandoning the large-scale stimulus program in March and it could be the start to policy normalization. Although the Bank states that it does not target foreign exchange rates, a change in the bond purchase regime or a clear hawkish signal would work in favor of the yen's growth.

Forecasts vary widely. If the BOJ is too cautious, the yen may weaken further and head towards the 160 level, where intervention to prevent further depreciation would likely occur. If the measures are aggressive, bond yields will rise sharply, complicating the government's ability to service its accumulated obligations.

The net short JPY position decreased by $1.75 billion to -$10.6 billion, indicating that positioning remains strongly bearish but a trend reversal is emerging. However, the price is not falling, suggesting that conditions for a bullish bias on the yen have not yet materialized.

This image is no longer relevant

USD/JPY is trying to resume its uptrend, which happens whenever the BOJ avoids providing specific details about its future course of actions. Japanese bond yields declined amidst growing uncertainty regarding the BOJ's plans. The substantial yield differential objectively forces the use of the Japanese currency in carry trade transactions, and this will continue until the BOJ decides to proceed with raising its rate.

Nevertheless, we believe that buying USD/JPY is too risky due to the high probability of another currency intervention. Therefore, we adhere to the same strategy – sell on rallies. If the pair rises above 159, the threat of intervention will increase significantly. While the pair remains below this level, local bullish impulses are possible.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Análise e previsão

Os preços do ouro seguem uma trajetória positiva após uma queda intradiária para o nível de US$ 3.275-3.274. A demanda renovada por ativos considerados porto seguro é impulsionada por riscos

Irina Yanina 20:57 2025-05-09 UTC+2

O BoE está preocupado com a economia

Monitoro regularmente três bancos centrais, cada um representando abordagens quase opostas em relação à política monetária. Na quinta-feira, o Banco da Inglaterra reduziu as taxas de juros, citando preocupações

Chin Zhao 18:17 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Os mercados abrirão os olhos e fecharão os ouvidos

É melhor comprar ações agora mesmo! Graças à política comercial da Casa Branca, os EUA vão atrair US$ 10 trilhões em investimentos. Este país será como um foguete subindo direto."

Marek Petkovich 17:45 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Os EUA e o Reino Unido assinam um acordo comercial

A libra esterlina recuou após a divulgação da notícia de que os Estados Unidos e o Reino Unido assinaram um acordo comercial. No entanto, há diversas nuances que ainda precisam

Jakub Novak 17:36 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Todos começaram a acreditar em Trump novamente?

O dólar americano retomou sua trajetória de alta, enquanto diversos ativos de risco sofreram quedas acentuadas após o presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, declarar que espera avanços significativos nas próximas

Jakub Novak 17:22 2025-05-09 UTC+2

A União Europeia prepara novas tarifas contra os Estados Unidos

Foi revelado que a União Europeia planeja impor tarifas adicionais sobre exportações dos Estados Unidos no valor de €95 bilhões, caso as atuais negociações comerciais com a administração do presidente

Jakub Novak 17:08 2025-05-09 UTC+2

DXY: O dólar mantém a esperança de uma recuperação

Hoje, o Índice Dólar dos EUA (DXY), que mede o desempenho do dólar em relação a uma cesta de moedas principais, encontra-se em uma fase de consolidação altista após atingir

Irina Yanina 14:27 2025-05-09 UTC+2

O Banco da Inglaterra está pronto para reduzir as taxas

Espera-se que o Banco da Inglaterra corte as taxas de juros em 0,25 ponto percentual hoje e sinalize que uma nova redução é provável em junho. Isso pode colocar

Jakub Novak 17:18 2025-05-08 UTC+2

O mercado se recuperará por conta própria.

O Fed já não é mais o centro do universo financeiro, e a valorização de 13% do S&P 500 em relação às mínimas de abril encareceu ainda mais as ações

Marek Petkovich 15:57 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Por que o ouro caiu drasticamente após a reunião do Fed?

O ouro teve um leve aumento após a reunião do Federal Reserve, na qual as taxas de juros foram mantidas inalteradas e o presidente do Fed, Jerome Powell, declarou

Jakub Novak 15:45 2025-05-08 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.