विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 09.07.2022

09.07.2022 10:47 AM

The June NonFarm Payrolls did not disappoint... That's just who?

NonFarm Payrolls – June 2022

Fresh data on the US labor market came out, and the June NonFarm Payrolls turned out to be very good. But not good either. Can June be considered a month of strong hiring? Do the NFP data support the case for another excessive rate hike? Stable or strong June NonFarm Payrolls is a very strong argument for the US central bank in favor of another sharp increase in interest rates. Actually, red-hot inflation leaves no other options for the central bank except to move the base rate up. The only question is how much. Although there is already some clarity here. Two of the most hawkish Federal Reserve representatives, Christopher Waller and James Bullard, called for a 75 basis point increase in July. The central bank's meeting on this issue will be held at the end of the month – on July 26 and 27.

United States NonFarm Payrolls

In June 2022, the number of vacancies (outside agriculture) in the United States increased by 372,000 people. This indicator came out lower than the previous one (384,000), but much higher than the forecast (268,000). The figures coincided with an average monthly increase of 383,000 compared to the previous three months, which still indicates a shortage of the labor market. According to June data, employment in the non-agricultural sector decreased by only 524,000 (0.3%) compared to the pre-pandemic level (February 2020).

Labor force participation rate

The labor force participation rate remains 1.25% lower to the pandemic level (February 2020). It takes into account everyone who is working or looking for a job. The labor force participation rate in the United States fell to 62.2% in June 2022 from 62.3% in the previous month. Apparently, Americans who lost their jobs or quit before the pandemic are returning to their jobs with a delay.

Wages

In the data of the June NFP, as well as the previous one, the indicators of hourly wages deserve special attention. They are important for the Fed in its control over inflation and the fight against it. After all, the more money in the pockets of Americans, the more funds that affect a wide basket of goods.

Average hourly wage (M/M)

The average hourly wage increased by 0.3% in May against 0.4% (M/M), and in annual recalculation fell from 5.5% to 5.2%. Approximately the same picture emerges in June. The average hourly wage in the United States increased by 0.3% (to $32.08). Moreover, the previous 0.3% (in May) was also revised upward to 0.4% in the previous month and in line with market estimates. Overall, over the past 12 months, average hourly wages have increased by 5.1% after an upwardly revised increase of 5.3% and slightly above market forecasts for a 5% increase.

Average hourly wage (Y/Y)

The US Federal Reserve and the dollar exchange rate

"We will do everything possible to achieve full employment and price stability," – such goals, according to the head of the US central bank, are set by the Fed. And although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell considers the fight against red-hot inflation to be the main priority, the second important area of attention is full employment in the labor market. If the labor market shrinks, then the central bank will have an opportunity for a softer policy. Moreover, this will not necessarily lead to a decline in the dollar.

So now the markets are likely to focus on what the Fed is also worried about – inflation and rising interest rates. And higher interest rates will lead to a rise in the US dollar. The June NonFarm Payrolls data has already caused a lot of volatility in the markets, especially in the currency markets. As uncertainty about the Fed's rate hike persists, investors have recently been very sensitive to any economic news.

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