Global trade is facing hard times as it could shrink dramatically. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global trade growth is projected to slow almost by half to just 1.7% in 2025. Back in January this year, forecasts were much more optimistic: the IMF expected trade growth of 3.2%. Alas, the situation has changed for the worse. Against this backdrop, the IMF now anticipates a decline in the indicator to 1.7%. Moreover, the IMF has downgraded its global trade growth forecast for 2026 by 0.8 percentage points to 2.5%.

Assessing the global economic outlook, experts note that the current revision is largely due to the rise of protectionism and the expansion of trade barriers, particularly from the United States. Analysts believe this will heighten uncertainty surrounding trade policy over the next two years. The ongoing tariff standoff between the US and China is adding further fuel to the fire. Earlier, China's Ministry of Commerce warned its trading partners that President Donald Trump and his administration were going to step up pressure on China. Beijing views this as an attempt to isolate China from other countries as part of the ongoing trade war.

It was previously reported that Trump’s administration planned to pressure certain nations into restricting trade with China in exchange for an exemption from US tariffs. China’s officials responded with vivid sarcasm, saying, "It’s like asking a tiger for its skin." Besides, Beijing has promised retaliatory measures should the situation worsen.