empty
03.03.2025 02:40 PM
Oil: key drivers and market outlook for this week

This image is no longer relevant

In the coming days, volatility in the oil and gas markets may increase significantly, especially in light of expected economic data and potential statements from key policymakers. The focus should now be on support and resistance levels as the market is at a critical decision point.

Brent crude oil futures continue to consolidate within a tight range of $72–73.75 per barrel. Support at $70-70.7 remains key, preventing further declines, while the descending resistance level limits price action from the top. In these conditions, traders must navigate through a mix of conflicting factors.

This image is no longer relevant

A break below $70 could intensify bearish sentiment and lead to a test of $68 and lower. On the upside, the next target is $75, which would open the way to $78.

Fundamental drivers: positive factors and risks

Assessing the geopolitical situation remains a complex task. The likelihood of a ceasefire agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict appears to be delayed based on recent signals. This is a positive factor for the oil market, as continued tensions support a risk premium in prices.

Encouraging news has come from Asia: China's manufacturing PMI for February came in well above expectations. This reinforces hopes for stable demand from the world's largest energy importer.

However, the global economic outlook remains threatened by the possible resumption of trade wars initiated by Donald Trump. Such a scenario could slow global GDP growth, putting pressure on oil demand.

Sanctions against Iran and Russia have not yet had a significant impact on supply volumes to Asia. However, potential increases in restrictions on either country's shadow fleet could intensify competition for available vessels, which could impact supply logistics.

Gas: growth in question

Natural gas futures are in a bull market, but the current move is accompanied by a correction, the depth of which is difficult to gauge. Key levels:

  • Resistance: $3.887 – the zone of the descending trendline
  • Support: $3.567 – a potential level where demand could pick up

A break above the resistance level could resume the bullish trend, while a drop below the support level would open the path to $3.45 and lower.

This week's top events

  • March 4: US oil inventories data from API.
  • March 5: EIA statistics, the start of China's National People's Congress.
  • March 7: US labor market data, a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and Baker Hughes rig count.
Natalya Andreeva,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues to show strong demand, trading near its all-time high, just below the key psychological level of $3400. The hardline international trade policy pursued by U.S. President Donald Trump

Irina Yanina 19:15 2025-04-21 UTC+2

EUR/GBP. Analysis and Forecast

The strengthening of the pair is linked to the euro's rise amid U.S. dollar weakness, driven by concerns over a potential recession in the U.S. and questions about the Federal

Irina Yanina 12:17 2025-04-21 UTC+2

Markets in limbo: awaiting next shock or revival

After the rollercoaster ride of early April, the US stock market seems to have come to a standstill. The S&P 500 is neither alive nor dead — it's starting

Marek Petkovich 11:46 2025-04-21 UTC+2

The Dollar and Stock Market Crash Continues (AUD/USD May Keep Rising While USD/JPY Declines Further)

While Europe and parts of Asia continue celebrating Easter and political life has temporarily paused, in the U.S., the "Make America Great Again" trend set by Donald Trump continues

Pati Gani 09:04 2025-04-21 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 21? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic events are scheduled for Monday—not in the U.S., the Eurozone, Germany, or the U.K. Therefore, even if the market was paying attention to the macroeconomic backdrop, today, there

Paolo Greco 06:30 2025-04-21 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 21: The Inertial Growth Continues

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Friday. If we had seen such price action away from peak levels, there would have been no questions. In essence

Paolo Greco 04:01 2025-04-21 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 21: The Market Sleeps, Only Trump Can Wake It Up

On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair made no notable movements whatsoever. This was unsurprising, as Friday marked Good Friday, and Sunday was Easter. Many banks and trading venues were closed

Paolo Greco 04:01 2025-04-21 UTC+2

US Dollar: Weekly Preview

Is there light at the end of the tunnel? The US dollar will again try to answer that question in the new week. To briefly recap: over the past

Chin Zhao 01:01 2025-04-21 UTC+2

British Pound: Weekly Preview

Several fairly interesting reports were released in the UK, but they almost did not impact market participants' actions. Demand for the British pound increased on all five days except

Chin Zhao 01:01 2025-04-21 UTC+2

Euro: Weekly Preview

There were very few changes regarding the euro last week. We observed horizontal movement for most of the week, which naturally did not affect the current wave markup. I want

Chin Zhao 01:00 2025-04-21 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.