empty
30.01.2025 03:24 AM
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on January 30: The Euro Prepares for a Decline

EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair exhibited low volatility on Wednesday and has not yet determined its direction of movement. We are not considering the fluctuations that occurred following the announcement of the Federal Reserve meeting results, as we believe the market needs time to process the information and adjust the pair's rate. Conclusions can be drawn no earlier than mid-Thursday when European traders will also react to the Fed meeting results. On Wednesday, there were no macroeconomic reports in either the EU or the US, leaving the market with little to react to. As a result, it began to sift through the continuous flow of information from Donald Trump. The days when Trump's statements could trigger a 100-pip movement are long gone. The market is now very cautious regarding the US President's remarks, given his track record of failing to fulfill several election promises.

The technical outlook had already shifted prior to the Fed meeting. The price broke through the ascending trendline but quickly rebounded upward. However, this breakout suggests that the price is poised for another decline. While it may not necessarily lead to a continuation of the four-month downtrend, some decline seems likely. Nonetheless, it is premature to jump to conclusions. Today marks the European Central Bank meeting, which may result in further changes to the technical picture. Additionally, we should await the response of European traders to the Fed meeting.

There were no significant trading signals to highlight from Wednesday, as none were generated. During the European trading session, the price approached the Kijun-sen line but failed to fully engage with it, even with a slight margin.

COT Report

This image is no longer relevant

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, dated January 21, shows that the net position of non-commercial traders has remained bullish for quite some time. However, bears have now taken the lead. Two months ago, there was a significant increase in the number of short positions held by professional traders, causing the net position to turn negative for the first time in a long while. This indicates that the European currency is now being sold more frequently than it is being bought.

We do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the European currency. The recent growth of the euro on the weekly timeframe appears to be a simple retracement. While the pair may experience a correction for a few more weeks, the long-term downward trend that has persisted for 16 years is unlikely to be reversed.

At this time, the red and blue lines have crossed, indicating a bearish trend in the market. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" category increased by 4,900, while the number of short positions rose by 6,900. As a result, the net position decreased by another 2,000 contracts.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

On the hourly timeframe, the pair continues its upward trend, which is corrective. We believe that a decline will likely resume in the medium term. The Fed may cut rates only 1-2 times in 2025, reflecting a more hawkish stance than the market had anticipated. This factor, among others, could support the American dollar going forward. The price has broken the trendline and now needs to overcome the Senkou Span B line before we can confirm a new downward trend on the hourly timeframe.

For trading on January 30, we highlight the following key levels: 1.0124, 1.0195, 1.0269, 1.0340-1.0366, 1.0461, 1.0524, 1.0585, 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, and 1.0843, along with the Senkou Span B line at 1.0318 and the Kijun-sen line at 1.0453. Please note that the Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when identifying trading signals. Remember to place a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has moved 15 pips in your favor, as this will help protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Thursday, the European Union will release the results of the ECB meeting, and Christine Lagarde will speak. Additionally, Germany, the EU, and the US will publish their fourth-quarter GDP reports. While these reports may be overshadowed by the ECB and Fed meetings, they will still provide valuable insights into potential changes in economic growth for both the EU and the US.

Illustration Explanations:

  • Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Thick red lines indicate where movement may come to an end. Please note that these lines are not sources of trading signals.
  • Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. These are strong lines.
  • Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. These serve as sources of trading signals.
  • Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, or any other technical patterns.
  • Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position size for each category of traders.
Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on February 21st (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.2640 level as a key decision point. Looking at the 5-minute chart, a false breakout at this support level provided a solid

Miroslaw Bawulski 16:24 2025-02-21 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on February 21st (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.0475 level as a key entry point. Looking at the 5-minute chart, we can see that a false breakout at this level

Miroslaw Bawulski 16:17 2025-02-21 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on February 21? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair traded higher on Thursday, even though there weren't any fundamental or macroeconomic reasons for this increase. Earlier

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-02-21 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on February 21? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair continued to exhibit extremely low volatility on Thursday, primarily influenced by technical factors. After failing to break through

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on February 21: The Pound Is Rising Rapidly

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair initially remained stagnant but surged by nearly 100 pips. Such strong movements are rare, even after Bank of England or Federal Reserve meetings. However

Paolo Greco 06:06 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on February 21: The Euro Started to Rise Again

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement, rebounding for the fifth or sixth time from the trendline. We did not expect the price to fail again

Paolo Greco 06:06 2025-02-21 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on February 20th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted 1.2590 as a key level for making trading decisions. Looking at the 5-minute chart, we can see that a break and retest of 1.2590

Miroslaw Bawulski 14:11 2025-02-20 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on February 20th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.0441 level as a key decision point for market entry. Looking at the 5-minute chart, we can see that the pair attempted

Miroslaw Bawulski 14:08 2025-02-20 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on February 20? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair continued to trade in a sideways manner. For the second consecutive day, traders had ample reason

Paolo Greco 06:29 2025-02-20 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on February 20? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to experience minimal volatility and a downward trend. Throughout the day, several macroeconomic reports were

Paolo Greco 06:29 2025-02-20 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.