empty
07.01.2025 10:05 AM
Oil Fundamentals Remain Intact

Oil seems to have been spooked by its own rally. After experiencing four consecutive days of gains, Brent crude has retreated, reflecting concerns about a potential increase in oil market surplus in 2024. According to Morgan Stanley, global demand is projected to rise by 1 million barrels per day (b/d). In contrast, OPEC+ supply is expected to increase by 300,000 b/d, and output from non-OPEC countries will grow by 1.4 million b/d. Consequently, supply is set to outpace demand by 700,000 b/d, which could lead to a decline in prices. Similar predictions have been issued by other financial institutions.

Bank of America predicts that the North Sea benchmark will trade at an average of $65 per barrel in 2025, as supply growth outside OPEC+ will outpace global demand. Countries like Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and Norway are expected to flood the market with oil, while U.S. production will see more moderate growth—despite Donald Trump's "Drill, baby, drill!" mantra.

In contrast to these bearish forecasts, asset managers have been increasing their long positions in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude and reducing their short positions. As a result, net long positions in the Texas benchmark have reached their highest levels since August.

Speculative Positions in Oil

This image is no longer relevant

Buyers are increasingly confident that demand will grow faster than anticipated. This optimism is bolstered by a significant decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, indicating a bullish trend in the oil market. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has implemented its first price increase for Asian buyers in three months, and there's growing hope for further fiscal stimulus from China.

However, the market remains cautious due to the possibility that increased sanctions against Russia and Iran could lower supply volumes, which would likely drive Brent prices higher. It is noteworthy that Riyadh has shifted its strategy; rather than lowering prices to compete with Moscow in the Asian market, it has opted to raise them.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories and WTI Spreads

This image is no longer relevant

The Washington Post reported insider claims that the incoming U.S. administration is considering targeted tariffs, which has contributed to a rally in Brent crude oil prices. If these tariffs are selective, they could potentially mitigate the severe global economic slowdown that is currently anticipated, leading Brent prices to surge to $77.40 per barrel.

However, to the disappointment of bullish investors, Donald Trump dismissed The Washington Post's report as fake news, asserting that there would be no lower tariffs than those previously promised. This caused Brent buyers to reconsider their positions, particularly as the U.S. dollar regained strength following its earlier decline triggered by the media report.

This image is no longer relevant

In my opinion, the market, weary from ongoing bearish forecasts, is attempting to shake off its negative sentiment, spurred by a series of positive news. However, we cannot overlook reality, which makes oil an appealing asset to sell during price rallies.

On Brent's daily chart, a pin bar with a long upper shadow has formed. Traders can take advantage of this pattern by placing a pending sell order at $76 per barrel, allowing them to expand their existing short positions initiated at $77.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

What to Pay Attention to on April 21? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic events are scheduled for Monday—not in the U.S., the Eurozone, Germany, or the U.K. Therefore, even if the market was paying attention to the macroeconomic backdrop, today, there

Paolo Greco 06:30 2025-04-21 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 21: The Inertial Growth Continues

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Friday. If we had seen such price action away from peak levels, there would have been no questions. In essence

Paolo Greco 04:01 2025-04-21 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 21: The Market Sleeps, Only Trump Can Wake It Up

On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair made no notable movements whatsoever. This was unsurprising, as Friday marked Good Friday, and Sunday was Easter. Many banks and trading venues were closed

Paolo Greco 04:01 2025-04-21 UTC+2

US Dollar: Weekly Preview

Is there light at the end of the tunnel? The US dollar will again try to answer that question in the new week. To briefly recap: over the past

Chin Zhao 01:01 2025-04-21 UTC+2

British Pound: Weekly Preview

Several fairly interesting reports were released in the UK, but they almost did not impact market participants' actions. Demand for the British pound increased on all five days except

Chin Zhao 01:01 2025-04-21 UTC+2

Euro: Weekly Preview

There were very few changes regarding the euro last week. We observed horizontal movement for most of the week, which naturally did not affect the current wave markup. I want

Chin Zhao 01:00 2025-04-21 UTC+2

Trump targets Powell

Yesterday, US President Donald Trump stated that he could dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, casting doubt on the idea of central bank independence. He also expressed frustration that policymakers

Jakub Novak 14:42 2025-04-18 UTC+2

EU increases pressure on US

The entire world is now watching the ongoing negotiations between the US and its key trading partners. Despite President Trump's loud claims that the talks are going well, there

Jakub Novak 14:04 2025-04-18 UTC+2

The Market Taken Hostage

Will the White House cross the Rubicon by initiating the dismissal of Jerome Powell from his position as Chair of the Federal Reserve? That would deal another blow to financial

Marek Petkovich 09:16 2025-04-18 UTC+2

Why Are Markets Frozen and What Are They Waiting For? (There is a possibility of continued Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidation in sideways ranges)

Today is Good Friday, a day Christians observe worldwide across all denominations. Market activity has noticeably decreased ahead of the Easter holiday, but this isn't the main reason for market

Pati Gani 09:00 2025-04-18 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.