empty
23.09.2024 03:32 PM
AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Today, despite the release of weaker PMI data from Australia—the Purchasing Managers' Index—the Australian dollar continues to maintain its position against the U.S. dollar.

The AUD/USD pair is likely rising due to the People's Bank of China (PBOC) injecting liquidity into the banking system, as Australia and China are close trading partners. Therefore, developments in China's economy are currently having a significant impact on Australian markets.

The People's Bank of China injected 74.5 billion yuan into the banking system through a 14-day reverse repo operation, lowering the interest rate to 1.85% from 1.95%. Additionally, it injected 160.1 billion yuan in liquidity through a 7-day reverse repo. The interest rate for this operation remained unchanged at 1.7%.

Moreover, the Australian dollar is strengthening due to expectations surrounding the upcoming interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), scheduled for Tuesday. It is anticipated that the RBA will keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35%, backed by strong labor market data and ongoing inflationary pressures.

In contrast, the U.S. dollar may weaken, as Federal Reserve policymakers forecast an additional 50 basis points rate cut by the end of 2024. This follows last week's aggressive 50 basis points cut to a range of 4.75–5.00%.

For trading opportunities, attention should be given to the release of U.S. PMI data, expected later in today's North American session.

From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar holds above the 0.6800 level. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding above 50, indicating that price movements following the release of U.S. news will provide a clearer picture of the pair's trend.

Given that the AUD/USD pair has not fallen below the round 0.6800 level and is trading near its nine-month high, reached on September 19, at 0.6840, a rebound above this level could push the pair even higher.

On the other hand, the AUD/USD pair may find support around the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6767, with the next key support at the psychological level of 0.6700. A break below this level could lead the pair toward the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and then to its six-week low at 0.6622, near the 200-day SMA.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

U.S. Inflation Data: What to Know and What to Expect

A highly anticipated March inflation report from the U.S. is expected today, with analysts predicting a slowdown, partly due to declining energy prices—which has brought some relief to consumers. According

Jakub Novak 12:09 2025-04-10 UTC+2

China Plans Emergency Meeting and a Strong Response to the U.S.

According to media reports, China's top leadership is set to hold an emergency meeting today to discuss additional economic stimulus measures following President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariff hikes

Jakub Novak 12:07 2025-04-10 UTC+2

Trump Suspends Tariffs for 90 Days but Raises Rates on China Even Further

President Donald Trump announced yesterday a 90-day suspension of tariff increases that had affected dozens of trade partners, while simultaneously raising tariffs on China to 125%. The president's policy shift

Jakub Novak 11:57 2025-04-10 UTC+2

Wall Street responding to president's call

Where there's smoke, there's fire. At the start of the second week of April, a rumor spread on social media about a 90-day delay in US tariffs, causing markets

Marek Petkovich 10:58 2025-04-10 UTC+2

Trump Maneuvers in Trade War With China (Potential for Continued Recovery in #SPX and AUD/USD)

The U.S. President continues maneuvering actively, engaging in geopolitics, economics, and global financial markets. Investors are asking: What happened on Wednesday? Why did the White House suddenly announce a truce

Pati Gani 09:56 2025-04-10 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 10? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are very few macroeconomic events scheduled for Thursday, but the U.S. inflation report still holds some relevance for traders. At the moment, inflation has limited influence because virtually everyone

Paolo Greco 06:49 2025-04-10 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview. April 10: Trump Meets His Match

The GBP/USD currency pair showed gains and losses throughout Wednesday. The afternoon decline once again raised some questions, though market movements in recent months have lacked much logic. The market

Paolo Greco 03:21 2025-04-10 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview. April 10: From Prince to Pauper

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade higher on Wednesday, once again failing to settle below the moving average line. Donald Trump keeps announcing new tariffs — or previously announced

Paolo Greco 03:21 2025-04-10 UTC+2

The Dollar – A Toxic Currency

Trouble often comes in pairs or groups. The decline of American exceptionalism is only one of the challenges facing EUR/USD bears. The main currency pair remains resilient and occasionally goes

Marek Petkovich 00:59 2025-04-10 UTC+2

GBP/JPY: Down, Only Down

The pound is plummeting against the yen. The cross has dropped by over a thousand points in just one week, reflecting the British currency's weakness and the yen's "crisis resilience."

Irina Manzenko 00:59 2025-04-10 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.